Mets vs Mariners MLB Computer Pick: Seattle Struggles with Manaea

However, he’s only batting .238 against RHP over the last 30 days with a 30.7% K%. He does have a 10.7% BB%, so drawing a walk is in play (+235), but he’s only batting .207 here in August overall. Hitting in deep counts forces guys to protect and swing at borderline pitches that they can’t really drive.

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Their staff, headlined by George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo, leads the majors with 70 quality starts — 10 more than the next-closest team, Philadelphia. The Mariners also have baseball’s best ERA (3.50) and WHIP (1.09), per MLB results. The New York Mets have a tally of 3,088 putouts on the year, as well as 1,001 assists and 75 errors. Their fielding rate sits at .982 which ranks 28th in the majors, and have a total of 97 double plays. The Mets have turned 70.2% of balls hit into play into outs in their 9,264 innings on the field, which has them sitting at 13th in MLB.

• Logan Gilbert gets the ball for the Seattle Mariners, and he is 6-8 with a 3.05 ERA and 143 strikeouts this season.
• Francisco Lindor has been swinging the bat well for the Mets of late, going 9/30 in his last seven games.
• Seattle is sending Luis Castillo to the mound today vs. the Mets, and he comes into the game with a record of 9-11 and an ERA of 3.48.
• Seattle cruised to an easy 6-0 win over the Mets in the most recent game of this series.
• Though he has slightly decreased his ERA in five starts since the All-Star break, from 3.53 to 3.48.
• Cal Raleigh has been the team’s top power threat this season, as his 24 homers are 10th in the league.
• According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 66% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 55% chance of going over.
• While the Mariners have done a decent job of winning when they come in as favorites in Seattle, they’re just to the run line in these games to hit at just a 40.3% clip.

MLB Odds/Point Spread: New York Mets -1.5 +163, Total Odds: 7

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries. After extensive simulations, our model gives the Mets a win probability of 48%, while the Mariners have a win probability of 52%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page. These teams have met 9 times in the last 3 seasons (with 2024 counting as one of those three). The Mariners snapped a 3-game losing streak with a 4-3 W over the Detroit Tigers Thursday. 1B Luke Raley had 2 hits, including his 14th homer of the season.

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And I don’t like that in this matchup because the Mariners are a team held back by lots of swings and misses. If they are able to put more balls in play, like any offense, they’ll have more success. The nature of the wins hasn’t taxed the Mariners bullpen all that much and Castillo is as rock solid as anybody at home. The Mets have actually been shutout 10 times this season now, but this is the first time they’ve gone scoreless in consecutive games since April 3 and 4 of last season. They were shut out on back-to-back days by the Braves on August 11 and 12, but Game 1 of a doubleheader took place in between blanks.

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• The bullpen has been an issue, but it could get a lift with right-hander Reed Garrett (elbow) expected to rejoin the club this weekend.
• The offense is clicking, Randy Arozarena has stepped up well in the outfield, and the team will only get stronger when Julio Rodriguez returns in a few weeks.
• Gilbert can’t control what his hitters do; he has to just go out to the mound and give his team a chance to win.
• Not only could that run up Severino’s pitch count and lead to a five-and-fly type of start, he’s just not a guy that induces a lot of whiffs.

In their 9,252 innings on the diamond, the Mariners are sitting with a efficiency on defense of 71.8% (1st in MLB). The Mets have been listed as +115 moneyline underdogs for this matchup against the favorite Mariners (-135). What can we expect to see out of both offenses with two effective starters on the bump? Let’s get right into our Mets vs. Mariners prediction for “Sunday Night Baseball” tonight.

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They have been even worse at home, averaging just 3.4 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .217 and have the most strikeouts in the league. However, they are 6th in walks and have the 10th most home runs in the league.

Upcoming Games

In his most recent outing, he faced the Cardinals and picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up just six hits. Against the Mariners today, Manaea will look to build off that outing and turn in another strong performance. Looking at his overall numbers, Manaea has made 22 starts, and opponents are batting .211 this season. Jose Quintana gets the start for the Mets today as he faces off against the Mariners on the road. So far this season, he has made 22 starts and has a record of 6-7 to go along with an ERA of 3.96. Looking at his overall numbers, Quintana has a WHIP of 1.27 and has turned in eight quality starts.

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The Mets are due for a good offensive game, and their pitching should be fine against a subpar Seattle offense. New York has gone 0-3 to the run line in its last three games as the underdog while the Mariners have now cashed in two straight as the favorite after failing to do so in four straight. With that said, the Mariners have cashed the moneyline in 60% of the games they’ve been favored at home, going in all.

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While the Mariners have done a decent job of winning when they come in as favorites in Seattle, they’re just to the run line in these games to hit at just a 40.3% clip. The Mets are hitting the run line in just 49.6% of their games this year, but stand at as road underdogs to cash in 56.7% of those games. Castillo, meanwhile, continues to skate by despite diminished velocity on his fastball. What can we expect to see out of both offenses with two effective starters in Severino and Castillo on the bump? Let’s get into my Mets vs Mariners prediction and pick in my betting preview below, which includes the latest Sunday Night Baseball odds. A longtime NLer, Castillo has ample history against the Mets lineup, and it’s mostly favorable for the pitcher.

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Always make sure to exercise responsibility and stop if betting is no longer enjoyable to you. T-Mobile Park is the site where the Seattle Mariners (60-56) will go up against the New York Mets (61-54) on Sunday. The pitchers who are expected to start will be Luis Severino and Luis Castillo. You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if you win your first bet of at least $5! 🚨 Get viral graphics, memes, rumors and trending sports news delivered right to your inbox with the Clutch Newsletter.

Mariners vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Picks – August 9

Francisco Lindor has been swinging the bat well for the Mets of late, going 9/30 in his last seven games. Pete Alonso leads the team with 25 homers but is batting just .242 for the season. New York curiously has fared slightly better on the road this season, where it is and hitting .267 as a team. Seattle bullpen pitchers hold an inherited score rate of 38.6% of 158 inherited runners. Their relievers have stepped onto the hill 137 times in high leverage situations and on 110 occasions with base runners. With 105 save situations, the Mariners have 59 holds and 15 blown saves.

Team Injuries

Its Isolated Power has dipped significantly as well, and walks continue to be hard to come by, though the Mets continue to at least hit above the league average. There’s been little difference in terms of the batted ball profile with continued balance between ground balls and fly balls, so it’s hard to really pinpoint a reason for this team’s rut. The Seattle Mariners should get the benefit of the doubt at home with Logan Gilbert on the mound. The Mets have played the better ball in the second half, and Sean Manaea has been ridiculous over his last two starts, allowing 0 runs in his last 14 innings.

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He should be a 14-6 or 13-7 pitcher with such a good ERA number, but the futility of the Seattle offense has turned Castillo into a pitcher with a losing record in 20 decisions. Castillo can’t control what his offense does; he just has to take the bump and shut down the opposition. ClutchPoints is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or in any way connected to any sportsbook. This season, the Mets are against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are ATS.

Seattle Mariners vs New York Mets live scores, head to head, schedule, predictions, lineups and stats

Currently, the Mets are 3rd in the NL East, eight games behind the Phillies for the division lead. The expected stats didn’t look all that bad against the Rockies, but he is coming off the worst month of his season in terms of Expected Batting Average (.272) and Expected Slugging (.454). The betting odds lean slightly towards the Seattle Mariners, particularly due to their home field advantage and stronger pitching stats.

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Here’s everything you need to know before checking out today’s MLB odds and spreads on FanDuel Sportsbook. Matthew Zemek is part of ClutchPoints’ Betting team and has written for various sports websites and publications since 2001. He was the editor of the NBA site Crossover Chronicles in the 2016 NBA season and was a contributing editor for FanRag Sports in 2017.

For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more. I’ll bet on the Mets to pull off a short moneyline upset in this one. Let’s break down the odds, probable pitchers and my best bet for Saturday’s action.

The bullpen has been an issue, but it could get a lift with right-hander Reed Garrett (elbow) expected to rejoin the club this weekend. Garrett — who hasn’t pitched since July 9 — has a 3.64 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 42 innings. Runs may be tough to come by again for the Mets based on mets mariners prediction those numbers. Castillo has only allowed more than three runs twice, however, he’s also only had two shutout outings at home. Both pitchers are performing well, and there’s not much to separate the two right now. If he gets merely a modest amount of runs, he and the M’s should win.

Stay well-informed with the latest MLB news and our data-led MLB parlay picks all season long. Plus, our World Series odds give you the most up-to-date projections and the best available odds on the World Series, American League, National League, and each division. Calling Our Shot produces daily MLB betting content, including the latest predictions featured below. Before making any Mariners vs. Mets picks, be sure to check out the latest MLB predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.